How to Read the Signals

Everything on a ticker card, explained — what each number means, how it is computed, and how the pieces fit together. Educational use only; nothing here is investment advice (Terms of Use).

The big picture

For each ticker, the dashboard estimates a probable price range on five timeframes, then layers trend and overbought/oversold analysis on top to produce a single conviction call per timeframe. The two range edges are deliberately named for what they mean in practice:

Oversold buy level: The lower edge of the probable range — the zone where weakness is statistically stretched and buyers historically get paid (or where short-sellers take profits).
Overbought sell level: The upper edge — the zone where strength is stretched and trimming, selling, or shorting has historically been rewarded.

The levels are calibrated so that, historically, price finished inside the range about 83% of the time for that specific ticker and timeframe. They are recomputed from current data on every lookup.

Timeframes

Label	Horizon	Use it for
1wk	5 trading days	Very short-term timing — is this week's move stretched?
2wk	10 trading days	Swing entries and exits.
1mo	21 trading days	The classic monthly view — most position decisions.
2mo	42 trading days	Intermediate trend — direction and sizing context.
6mo	126 trading days	The big picture — which side you should be on at all.

Shorter frames are noisier and react faster; longer frames are slower but more reliable. The strongest setups occur when several frames say the same thing.

The conviction badges

The badges at the top of each card are the bottom line: how confident the model is about entering a position right now, on that timeframe. Calls, from most bullish to most bearish:

Call	Meaning
STRONG BUY / BUY	Uptrend with a reasonable or better entry here.
LEAN LONG	Long setup forming, but weaker — smaller size or wait.
WAIT	There is a trend, but this is a poor spot to enter (e.g. a downtrend that is already deeply oversold).
STAND ASIDE	No trend edge at all on this timeframe.
LEAN SHORT / SHORT / STRONG SHORT	Downtrend equivalents of the long calls.

The percentage is a 0–100 confidence score built from five parts (hover a badge to see the exact breakdown):

Trend strength — how many trend signals agree (see Direction).
Entry quality — a long scores best when the ticker is neutral-to-oversold; buying an overbought reading scores zero. Mirrored for shorts.
Reward/risk — distance to the profit level vs distance to the risk level (see Trade geometry).
Volume confirmation — the composite signal agreeing with the trade's direction.
Timeframe alignment — the next-longer timeframe pointing the same way.

The timeframe rows

Bias & OB/OS chips

LONG / SHORT / NONE: Direction — four trend votes: price above its fast moving average; fast average above the slow one; the fast average rising; and the rate of change over the timeframe positive. 4 votes = strong up, 0 = strong down, 2 = mixed (NONE).
OVERBOUGHT · LEANING · NEUTRAL · OVERSOLD: Stretch — the average of (a) the Money Flow Index percentile over the past year and (b) where price sits between the buy and sell levels. The Money Flow Index is a momentum oscillator where each day's move is weighted by dollar volume, so heavy-volume moves count more. An extreme raw MFI reading (≥80 or ≤20) forces the call.

Trade geometry

The line like ▲ +5.7% to sell level · ▼ 4.6% risk to buy level · R/R 1.2 shows the trade's geometry from the current price. Both directions read the same way: the green leg is the distance up to the sell level, the red leg is the distance down to the buy level, and the ratio divides the first by the second. For a long that is profit (to trim) over risk (to your add/stop zone). For a short the green leg is the bounce you would short into (your entry opportunity at the sell level) and the red leg is the distance already left to the cover level — a high ratio on a short frame means the attractive entry is still above you; be patient rather than pressing.

The level bar

The horizontal bar spans buy level (left, green) to sell level (right, red); the white marker is the current price. The number above it is %range: 0 = at the buy level, 1 = at the sell level, below 0 = broken down out of the range, above 1 = broken out above it (marked with !). Range breaks are information, not automatic signals — strong trends walk outside their ranges.

The chart

The last ~90 days of closing prices with the 2mo buy and sell levels drawn as dashed lines. Green line = net gain over the window, red = net loss. This is the fastest way to sanity-check a signal: is price sliding into the buy level, or running away above the sell level?

The detail table

horizon / buy lvl / sell lvl / %range: The levels and range position for every timeframe.
k- / k+: The calibrated band multipliers below and above the anchor price — how many volatility units each edge sits away. They are fit separately from each ticker's own 5-year history, so fat tails and trend drift make the band asymmetric (a strongly trending ticker's band leans in the trend's direction).
IV(t): Implied volatility interpolated to that timeframe's tenor from the ticker's option term structure. The levels blend realized volatility (what price actually did — 40% weight) with implied volatility (what the options market is pricing — 60% weight), so the range widens ahead of known events that options already price.
VRP: Variance risk premium: implied minus realized volatility, in points. Positive = options are expensive vs recent movement ("implied rich"); negative = cheap. Persistent extremes matter more than the day-to-day number.
anchor: The prior session close the levels are measured from — like a range published each morning.
RV (yang-zhang): Annualized realized volatility from an estimator that uses each day's open/high/low/close (more accurate than close-to-close).

Signal chips

vol z: Today's volume vs its 20-day average, in standard deviations. Above +0.5 = expanding participation; below −0.5 = contracting.
vol-of-vol falling / rising: Whether volatility itself is calming down (tailwind for risk assets) or accelerating (headwind).
composite: The three-factor read: price up + volume up + vol-of-vol falling is the most bullish configuration; price down on rising volume with accelerating volatility is the most bearish; anything else is mixed.
implied rich / cheap: The VRP as a label (options expensive or cheap vs realized).
term contango / backwardation: The implied-vol term structure. Near-dated IV below longer-dated (contango) is the calm norm; near-dated above longer-dated (backwardation) means the market is paying up for immediate protection — a stress signal.

Option expiry table & constant-maturity IV

At-the-money implied volatility for each monthly expiration (from liquid strikes only — the liq C/P column shows how many call/put strikes passed the liquidity screen), plus IV interpolated to fixed 30/60/90/180/365-day tenors so different days and tickers compare apples-to-apples.

The data tabs (Stock Market, Macro, Real Estate, Shipping, Semiconductors)

Each data tab follows the same pattern: a banner summary with stress flags, question-format outlook cards (the answer is the direction most drivers point; every driver shows its own arrow and reason), and data tables where each series shows its latest value, 3-month change (colored by whether that move is favorable), a percentile against its own history, a sparkline, and the observation date.

Real Estate is the deepest tab. Its outlook cards cascade in causal order (rates → buyer demand → prices, using the documented lead-lag relationships), and below them sits the Model corner — a separate research layer built with point-in-time ("vintage") data: the mortgage-spread rich/cheap model (50 years of history), a 12-month home-price growth estimate versus its momentum benchmark, and a metro-panel elasticity estimated across ~100 metro areas. Every model number carries its sample size and honesty caveats, and a forecast log banks each week's predictions so hit rates accumulate over time — the models earn trust by being scored, not by being confident.

Entering a position — a sizing playbook

One disciplined way to act on the calls. This is an example framework for education, not a rule book and not advice — adapt it to your own risk tolerance.

Define max risk first. Before entering anything, decide the most you are willing to commit to this one idea (your max position), and check the dollar risk: position size × the "% risk" shown on the card (distance to the level that proves you wrong). Many traders keep that dollar risk under 1–2% of their account per idea.
Start small on a signal. On a BUY, open a starter tranche of roughly 1/5 to 1/4 of your max position. On a STRONG BUY, up to 1/3. Never open a full-size position in one go — the levels are zones, not exact prices, and you want room to add lower.
Add toward the buy level, only while the signal holds. If price pulls back toward the buy level and the call is still BUY-or-better on your frame, add a second tranche; near the buy level itself, a third. Each add improves your average entry and your reward/risk. If the call degrades to WAIT or STAND ASIDE, stop adding and just manage what you have.
Know what proves you wrong. A decisive break below the buy level (%range below 0) after you are fully sized is the exit signal — the range has failed, take the loss while it is small. A wrong small starter costs a fraction of a wrong full position.
Trim into strength. Scale out in thirds as price approaches the sell level or the frame turns OVERBOUGHT. You can re-add the trimmed portion on the next pullback if the trend stays intact.
Shorts mirror everything. Starter on SHORT/STRONG SHORT, add on rallies toward the sell level while the call holds, cover into the buy level, and a decisive break above the sell level proves the short wrong.

How to use it — a workflow

Start with the badges. They already combine everything. Ideally, act only when a longer frame (1mo/2mo/6mo) has a directional call and the shorter frames don't contradict it.
Check the location. Favor longs entered near the buy level (%range low) and trims/shorts near the sell level (%range high). Mid-range is where edges are thinnest.
Check the pay. Prefer trades with R/R comfortably above 1. A rising R/R on a pullback literally means the trade is getting cheaper.
Respect WAIT. It usually means "right direction, wrong moment" — e.g. shorting something already washed out. The plan text says what to wait for.
Use the levels as the plan. Add near the buy level, trim near the sell level, and treat a decisive break of the levels as new information rather than an automatic fade.

Honest limitations. The levels are statistical estimates from historical data and options prices; roughly 1 day in 6 closes outside them by design. Quotes come from third-party sources and are delayed. Thinly-traded options make the volatility inputs noisier (check the liquidity columns). Nothing here knows about earnings dates, news, or your risk tolerance. Trading involves substantial risk of loss — always do your own research.

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